I posted about the deception in these tweets in real time, but it helps to see them a few weeks later after the dust has settled. This is a new tweet analysis article. See the previous one here.
Conditional Hypotheticals
In this article, I’ll make sure everybody is up to speed with conditional hypotheticals. A conditional hypothetical is an “if, then” statement. The “if” is called a predicate. The “then” is called the consequent. A conditional hypothetical is only false if the predicate is true, but the consequent is false.
Here’s an example. “If it rains tomorrow, the ground will be wet tomorrow.” This is a true statement even if it does not rain tomorrow. By contrast, consider: “If it rains tomorrow, the ground will not be wet at any time tomorrow.” This is a false statement because rain necessarily causes the ground to become wet. This creates a situation where the predicate is true, but the consequent is false.
Master persuader writes a lot of posts where the predicate is false. In propositional calculus, conditional hypotheticals with false predicates are always true statements. Recall that the master persuader makes sure to tell the truth.
Conditional hypotheticals allow master persuader to say statements that are true, but useless. Or even actively counterproductive. For example, “if nuclear war breaks out tomorrow, you can do whatever you want today.” This is a true statement. It is also a useless statement, because the probability that nuclear war breaks out tomorrow is basically zero.
Further, it is a counterproductive statement, because it sends a subliminal message in the consequent: “you can do whatever you want today.” This phrase affects the reader’s subconscious. Anything you pay attention to seems more important to your subconscious, and becomes a possibility you more strongly take into account or a behavior you are more likely to pursue. This changes your decisions.
Even if you do not perform the exact behavior indicated, your behaviors will move towards that behavior. They will move ever so slightly in that direction. If the behaviors observed are extreme negative behaviors, a dozen slight moves along that continuum is enough to substantially impact many people.
The master persuader writes many, many conditional hypotheticals where the predicate is almost certainly false and the consequent is useless or counterproductive. This damages the decision-making ability of his readers.
GME/Kitty Enthusiasm
Master persuader went haywire writing posts about GME during its recent hype cycle. If your goal is to make the most money investing, it is almost certainly the case that you are better off having paid zero attention to this news. It’s financial entertainment. You are better off using your focus where you have edge, generally by building your own business or building your domain knowledge.
When this started, I summarized master persuader’s apparent intentions simply. I assessed an apparent desire for his followers to speculate where they have no edge and lose money as a consequence. As we know from prior posts and the persuasion analyses, the persuader consistently pushes readers towards worse decisions and outcomes (article 1, article 2, article 3, article 4, article 5, article 6, article 7, article 8).
Master persuader’s GME routine involved copious use of conditional hypotheticals with false/useless predicates, in order to send a counterproductive subliminal message to influence his followers. I called these out on my Twitter feed in real time, but it’s a lot easier to reassess after the dust has settled. For many of these predicates/consequents, we now know for a fact that the statement was not true.
Example Posts
Predicate: “He is serious about this insane plan.”
Consequent: “He probably rolled.”
Reality: He didn’t roll. He reported fully selling the call options and converting into the underlying (shares of GME). Truth value of the conditional hypothetical: true. Both the predicate and the consequent were false. The red subliminal message was counterproductive and hurt his followers’ decisions.
Predicate: “This is really a gamma squeeze.”
Consequent: “This will be the funniest implications of all time.”
Reality: It was not a gamma squeeze. No gamma squeeze occurred around the time of this post. Truth value of the conditional hypothetical: true. When the predicate is false, the conditional hypothetical is always true. The green subliminal message was counterproductive and hurt his followers’ decisions, because it was false.
Predicate: “He rolled his calls.”
Consequent: “Everyone is mis-positioned.”
Reality: He didn’t roll his calls. Thus the conditional hypothetical was true, and both the predicate and the consequent were false, damaging his followers’ decisions.
Predicate: “He has the money, exercises the calls.”
Consequent: “No shares to deliver? Gamma squeeze whole chain in the money?”
This conditional hypothetical is actually false. If the Kitty guy had the money and exercised the calls, the consequent would not happen.1 That’s why the master persuader used question marks.
Reality: He didn’t exercise the calls. He was always highly unlikely to exercise the calls, and people familiar with the situation knew this. This entire post makes his followers’ decision-making worse.
Predicate: “This is what he did.” (rolled/exercised)
Consequent: “He deserves to be a billionaire.”
Reality: That’s not what he did. Whether he deserves to be a billionaire is an open question. However, since the predicate is false, this statement is true. The green subliminal message is also totally useless to his followers, because false, and therefore hurts their decision-making.
Predicate: “They really froze GME shares.”
Consequent: “They can get blown up for manipulation.”
Reality: They didn’t freeze GME shares. Nobody got blown up and current holders of GME are steadily losing money as this outcome continues to not occur. This conditional hypothetical is again true, and the subliminal messages are both false.
Wrap-up for free subscribers
There are a couple of things to emphasize here. One is the sheer volume of posts from master persuader on this topic. Understand the value of repetition in persuasion. Your subconscious operates upon building associations from sample.
If you give a subconscious lots of sample, you have a stronger impact upon the subconscious, which instills decision-making modules much more strongly in the individual.
Notice that all these posts used that same logical backdoor to make sure the ultimate statement was true. They ALL used the exact same conditional hypothetical format to cover the master persuader’s behind.
This shows you that master persuader knows exactly what he’s doing. He’s careful to send precise subliminal messages that are false or otherwise harm his readers’ decisions, while containing them in a logical structure such that every single one of these posts is technically truthful. This is how a person can be highly dishonest while being technically accurate.
It is how a person who understands persuasion can harm his followers’ decision-making while studiously avoiding telling any lies.
The following section builds upon previous paid articles. See you underground.